Intense floods and storms around the world could double in frequency within 13 years, as climate breakdown and socioeconomic factors combine, according to a new study.

The authors of the analysis say it’s the first to incorporate historical local and global climate data and information about population density, income and poverty to estimate how many hard-hitting disasters to expect. They counted floods and storms that would affect 1,000 people or kill 100 people.

Broadly, the researchers also see governments around the world as critically unprepared. The authors found very high risks for countries such as Australia, Bangladesh and China. Risks are highest for countries that are already seeing far more extreme events than the global average.

The study is published in the peer-reviewed Climate, Disaster and Development Journal.

Co-author Vinod Thomas, a visiting professor at the Asian Institute of Management in Manila who has held senior posts at the World Bank, said policymakers for the most part do not yet incorporate climate effects into their preparedness efforts.

“On the one side, there needs to be climate adaptation efforts, such as relocating people from highly exposed coastal regions or building better disaster preparedness that would withstand extreme hurricanes,” Thomas said. “Equally, there is a strong case for stepping up climate change mitigation in decarbonizing their economies.”